内容摘要

•2025年全球奢侈品消费额将稳定在1.44万亿欧元规模，市场表现坚挺；

•尽管经济和地缘政治不确定性带来挑战，整体市场仍相对稳定；

•市场发生结构性巨变，奢侈品消费者越来越追求体验而非物质拥有；

•面对利润空间收窄，品牌需加强业绩提升、借助AI提升效率，捍卫价值，同时保持品牌吸引力；

•在消费者基数扩大、长期稳定需求的推动下，未来十年的年增长率预计在4%-6%之间。

贝恩公司与意大利奢侈品行业协会Altagamma近日发布的联合报告指出，尽管面临经济与地缘政治不确定性的挑战，以及消费者偏好重大转变带来的冲击，全球奢侈品市场仍然展现出强劲韧性，2025年奢侈品整体消费规模预计与去年持平，保持稳定态势。

贝恩与Altagamma的《2025年全球奢侈品市场研究》报告显示，2025年全球奢侈品各细分市场的消费规模预计将达到约1.44万亿欧元，与去年相比基本持平（按固定汇率计算，上下波动幅度不超过1%），市场呈现逐步改善态势，且这一向好趋势有望延续至2026年。

研究报告指出，今年奢侈品整体消费规模预计保持稳定和韧性的背后，市场正经历深远而重大的结构性转变，消费者越来越追求体验而非购买新的奢侈品。这体现出全球消费者的一个普遍而重要的趋势：他们逐渐减少“炫耀式消费”，愈发青睐“体验式享受”，以健康养生、社交互动和自我犒赏作为彰显身份的新风尚。贝恩与Altagamma的研究将这一现象称为奢侈品市场的结构性巨变，即消费者偏好从豪华汽车等传统奢侈品，转向豪华邮轮、高端餐饮等奢华体验，不仅推动了奢侈品市场的整体增长，也重塑了细分市场格局。

2025年，全球个人奢侈品市场预计与去年基本持平，规模有望达到3580亿欧元（2023年为3690亿欧元，2024年为3640亿欧元），按当前汇率计算较去年下降约2%，按固定汇率则基本不变，表明市场已结束疫情后反弹进入成熟期。报告指出，尽管超高净值人群继续支撑高端奢侈品需求，但中产阶层及向往型消费人群的消费回落加剧了传统奢侈品的压力。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示：“购物狂潮落幕后，体验与情感成为奢侈品增长的真正引擎。市场依然保持坚挺，但不可避免地受到宏观经济复杂局势的影响，需要穿越全球经济波动周期。未来，市场将步入有质量的增长新阶段，要求品牌在业绩提升、道德行为和创新能力方面持续发力。同时，品牌应当聚焦少数高影响力的市场进行扩张，向更注重品质和体验的模式转变。”

从奢侈品细分市场来看，汽车市场各价位段销量均呈现下降趋势，唯有高端运动型车辆表现坚挺，而游艇和私人飞机需求则继续保持强劲增长。艺术品市场趋于停滞，设计师家具保持稳定，精品葡萄酒与烈酒表现欠佳，只有高端起泡酒和意大利红酒表现突出。贝恩与Altagamma的研究还指出，在追求体验的年轻旅行者推动下，亚洲、中东及度假胜地的高端餐饮业蓬勃发展。同时，旅游、野生动物观赏和精英运动等新兴领域，正凭借即时独享性重新定义现代奢侈品的内涵。

贝恩与Altagamma的分析发现，奢侈品消费呈现两极分化趋势。高端奢侈品约占整体市场的40%，在2023-2025年间略有收缩，复合年增长率为-1%至-3%；而入门级奢侈品则保持平稳或略有下降，复合年增长率介于0%至-2%。值得注意的是，高端奢侈品在汽车、酒店、精品葡萄酒与烈酒、高端餐饮等领域占比持续提升，而入门级奢侈品则主要在以Z世代和注重性价比的消费者为主的个人奢侈品市场取得份额增长。

个人奢侈品市场面临挑战与不确定性

2025年，个人奢侈品市场预计将保持整体平稳态势，但依然面临宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性的考验，目前正处于关键时刻——第四季度的表现将对全年业绩产生决定性影响。

奢侈品市场进入调整阶段，珠宝品类目前领跑增长，预计今年增长4%-6%，主要得益于需求韧性、情感价值以及定制设计的激增。眼镜品类也延续强劲表现，预计增长2%至4%，设计创新、多功能性和数字化融合成为主要推动力。美妆品类保持稳定，其中香水依然是最具活力的子品类，AI个性化服务日益兴起，而高端护肤和彩妆品牌的市场表现则出现分化。

研究发现，腕表市场呈现两极分化趋势：高端产品表现强劲，但关税和价格压力推动了二奢市场的活跃。成衣品类保持稳定，主要得益于入门级品牌的强劲表现。皮具品类波动不定，虽然缺少爆款新手袋，但趣味性的入门级产品支撑了市场。鞋履品类表现落后，主要受到价格敏感度与运动鞋激烈竞争的影响，但个性化款式显露回暖迹象。

总体来看，入门级奢侈品正在逐渐复苏，品牌成功吸引消费降级人群、激活存量客户、并俘获注重性价比的Z世代消费者。

降价压力蔓延全渠道，实体门店面积向精品化收缩

奢侈品实体零售领域，奥特莱斯门店表现突出，反映消费者对性价比与入门级奢侈品的追求。线上渠道保持稳定。品牌专卖店略有下滑，过去六个月门店总面积减少2.5万平方米；2024年以来，美国百货公司已经减少了约10%的经营面积。

贝恩与Altagamma的研究报告建议，品牌必须重构实体零售布局：打造更少但更大的旗舰店，传递情感共鸣、沉浸式体验和个性化联结。

区域发展不均格局下，新兴市场开启奢侈品新篇章

贝恩与Altagamma的研究报告还指出，2025年全球奢侈品市场进入关键调整期，呈现区域增长不均衡与消费者行为变迁的特征。中国市场预计今年将收缩3%至5%（按固定汇率计算），消费转向本土入门级品牌及体验型品类，而日本市场在2024年强劲增长后，因旅游业降温而呈现放缓态势。

与此同时，欧洲市场呈现疲软趋势，预计2025年欧洲奢侈品市场将下滑1%-3%，主要受强势欧元和地缘政治紧张影响，致使游客流入减少所致。美洲市场在持续波动的背景下仍保持相对稳健，增速在0%-2%之间，主要得益于美国国内需求的回暖，以及墨西哥、巴西奢侈品市场的扩张。

相比之下，中东成为奢侈品行业表现最亮眼的地区，在迪拜和阿布扎比繁荣发展的旅游业、以及沙特长期稳定需求的推动下，增速预计高达4%-6%。

除了传统核心市场外，新兴市场正在改写奢侈品行业格局。2025年，中东、拉美、东南亚、印度和非洲市场总规模约450亿欧元，已与中国内地市场体量相当。贝恩与Altagamma表示，从东南亚Z世代对入门级奢侈品的追捧，到印度中产阶级的迅猛崛起，再到非洲本土品牌的崭露头角，这些地区都展现出强劲的奢侈品增长潜力。

奢侈品消费者基数持续减少，头部客群消费趋稳

研究指出，奢侈品消费者基数持续减少与分化。奢侈品消费者总数从2022年的4亿降至2025年的3.4亿左右。2024-2025年间，奢侈品牌新客数量减少5%。同时，消费者兴趣度减弱：奢侈品活跃购物者占比从2022年约60%降至当前的40%-45%左右。

研究发现，奢侈品市场的消费模式呈现碎片化趋势，消费者购买频率降低，更青睐小额消费与促销渠道。消费转向体验型品类、性价比替代品及二手奢侈品，标志着消费者的奢侈品购买行为发生了结构性改变。同时，高消费人群的支出趋于稳定：市场份额从2019年的30%（880亿欧元）增长至2024年的45%（1650亿欧元），2025年稳定在46%-47%（1650亿欧元）左右。

利润率回落至2009年水平

受到运营成本上升与收入增长乏力的主要影响，奢侈品行业的利润率承压下行，已回落至2009年水平。有些个人奢侈品牌的息税前利润率曾在2012年达到23%的峰值，预计2025年将降至15%-16%，与2009年持平。

过去12个月内，利润率收缩估计导致奢侈品企业总值蒸发约1000亿欧元。

布鲁诺表示：“奢侈品牌正通过拓展相邻品类与入门级产品来重新定义业务边界，从运动鞋、小皮具等传统产品线延伸至食品、餐饮与健康领域。随着价格带上移与客户兴趣激增，品牌面临双重挑战：重新吸引向往型消费者，并在业务拓展中确保契合品牌调性。品牌必须从广泛覆盖转向精准定位，从追随潮流转向引领潮流，才能建立起面向未来的商业模式。唯有将道德理念融入价值主张，在与消费者沟通中拉近距离、建立信任，品牌才能赢得长久发展。”

2035年奢侈品市场展望

展望未来，报告指出，随着未来消费人群的增长，加上长期稳定的市场需求，个人奢侈品市场仍然有望实现4%-6%的年增长率。据贝恩与Altagamma预测，到2035年，个人奢侈品市场规模预计将达到5250-6250亿欧元，而奢侈品整体消费规模可能达到2.2-2.7万亿欧元。

“奢侈品行业正站在十字路口：区域增速不均、价格压力加大、消费人群多元化，正在考验奢侈品行业的核心竞争力。“布鲁诺指出，”尽管创造力正在逐步回归，但价格与价值等式已经失衡，品牌亟需以真诚重建信任。目前是奢侈品行业的关键时刻：要么拥抱道德责任、多元包容和真实精神来提升品牌，要么固守传统的精英主义。新的增长范式已然明了：愉悦体验、情感共鸣和道德行为才是价值的真正源泉。那些在利润与使命、创意与良知之间找到平衡点，抓住行业调整窗口期推进彻底转型的品牌，将在未来竞争中脱颖而出。”

Abstract

•Global luxury spending to be broadly stable in 2025 at €1.44 trillion amid resilient markets;

•Relative stability comes despite headwinds from economic and geopolitical uncertainties;

•Market seeing key structural shifts as luxury consumers continue prioritizing experiences over possessions;

•With margins squeezed, brands must double down on performance discipline and AI-enabled efficiency to defend value, but without dulling desirability;

•4% to 6% annual growth projected in next decade, fueled by expanding consumer base and enduring appetite.

Global luxury markets proved resilient into 2025, with overall luxury spending stabilizing at similar levels to last year, despite headwinds from economic and geopolitical uncertainties, as well as disruption from critical shifts in consumers' preferences, Bain & Company, in partnership with Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods manufacturers' industry association, finds today.

Consumers' worldwide spending across the luxury industry's segments is set to reach €1.44 trillion in 2025, to stand broadly flat compared with last year (between 1% higher and 1% down at constant exchange rates), with a sequentially improving trajectory expected to extend into next year, according to the annual Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study.

But the expected stability and resilience of overall luxury spending this year also masks far-reaching and significant structural shifts under the surface of the luxury marketplace as consumers increasingly choose experiences over buying new luxury possessions, the study reports. It highlights a persistent and crucial trend among consumers globally as they favor "experiential indulgence" over past trends of "conspicuous consumption" as new symbols of status, pivoting toward wellness, connection, and self-reward. What the Bain-Altagamma study calls a "tectonic shift" toward luxury experiences such as hospitality cruises, and fine dining, and away from more traditional luxury goods, including luxury automotive, is bolstering the growth of the overall luxury market and reshaping the industry across segments, it finds.

The global market for personal luxury goods is expected to remain broadly stable this year compared with last, with a forecast 2025 value of €358B (vs. €369B in 2023 and €364B in 2024) – down about 2% this year at current exchange rates, and flat at constant rates, signaling maturity rather than renewed momentum in the wake of this market's post-pandemic rebound. While ultra-wealthy buyers are continuing to sustain demand for high-end luxury goods, aspirational consumers have pulled back, adding to the pressure on traditional luxury, today's report adds.

"After the shopping spree era, experiences and emotions have become the true engine of luxury growth," Bruno Lannes, Senior Partner at Bain & Company ,  said.  "The market remains resilient but not immune to macro-economic complexities, navigating a fragile global balance. Ahead lies a phase of quality-driven growth, fueled by discipline, ethics and innovation. Expansion will favor fewer, higher-impact locations—a shift toward a more discerning, experience-led model."

Across luxury segments, cars are impacted by declining volumes across price tiers, with resilience only within higher-end sport-oriented vehicles, while yachts and jets continue to enjoy robust growth. Fine art stalls while design furniture stabilizes, and fine wines and spirits deliver disappointing results, with premium bubbles and Italian reds managing to stand out, the Bain-Altagamma study notes. It reports that gourmet dining is booming across Asia, the Middle East, and resort hubs, fueled by younger, experience-hungry travelers. New frontiers – travel activities, safaris, and elite sports – are meanwhile redefining modern luxury around immediate exclusivity.

Luxury spending by price tier exhibits polarization, the Bain-Altagamma analysis finds. The high-end tier (some 40% of the market) has contracted slightly between 2023 and 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between minus 1% and minus 3%. The accessible segment of the market was flat to slightly negative in the same timeframe, with a CAGR of between 0% and minus 2% at overall levels. However, while high-end is gaining share in cars, hospitality, fine wines and spirits and gourmet food and fine dining, it is the accessible segment which is gaining share in personal luxury goods, led by Gen Z and value-conscious consumers.

Personal luxury goods market confronts challenges and uncertainties

While the personal luxury goods market is expected to register a broadly stable trend overall for 2025, it confronts macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainties and is facing a moment of truth, as the performance in the fourth quarter of the year will be critical to close out the year.

Amid this recalibration within the personal luxury goods market, jewelry currently leads growth, with an expected expansion this year of 4% to 6%, powered by resilient demand, emotional appeal, and a surge in customizable designs. Eyewear is also continuing to perform strongly, with expected growth of 2% to 4%, boosted by design innovation, versatility, and digital integration. Beauty remains stable, but fragrances remain the most dynamic sub-category, with AI-driven personalization is gaining ground, while premium skincare and makeup suffer from performance polarization among players.

The market for watches is marked by increased polarization, the study finds, with high-end pieces thriving while tariffs and pricing pressures fuel the resale market. Apparel holds steady, driven by strong performance of accessible players. Leather goods wobble, lacking new hero bags but lifted by playful, aspirational alternatives. Shoes lag, hurt by price sensitivity and sportswear competition, though statement styles hint at recovery.

Overall, accessible luxury fashion is rebounding, driven by brands' success in engaging downtrading consumers, reactivating heritage clients, and attracting value-conscious Gen Z shoppers.

Markdown pressure across channels, while footprint shrinks in favor of more curated environments

In physical retail for luxury, outlet stores are outperforming as consumers chase value and accessible luxury. Online channels hold steady. Monobrand stores are slightly slipping, with a total reduction in store surface of 25,000 square meters in the past six months, while US department stores have cut some 10% of space since 2024.

The Bain-Altagamma study advocates that brands must reimagine physical retail: fewer, larger flagships that deliver emotion, immersion, and personalized connection.

In a fragmented and uneven regional landscape, fresh markets fuel luxury's next chapter

The global luxury market in 2025 is entering a crucial phase of global recalibration, marked by uneven regional trajectories and shifting consumer dynamics, the Bain-Altagamma study also reports. Spending in China is set to contract by between 3% and 5% this year (at constant exchange rates), pivoting toward local, more accessible brands and experience-driven categories, while Japan's market is decelerating after a strong 2024, due to cooling tourism.

Europe meanwhile faces a softening trend, with its luxury market set to dip in 2025 by between 1% and 3% amid slowing tourist inflows impacted by a strong euro and geopolitical tensions. The Americas are set to hold relatively firm (with growth of between 0% and 2%), buoyed by renewed domestic demand in the US and expanding luxury footprints in Mexico and Brazil, even as volatility lingers.

In contrast, the Middle East stands out as luxury's brightest performer, with expected growth of between 4% and 6%, fueled by robust tourism in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and sustained demand in Saudi Arabia.

Beyond the traditional hubs, a new wave of markets is redefining the luxury landscape. Middle East, Latin America, Southeast Asia, India, and Africa combined represent a market value of around €45 billion in 2025, matching Chinese mainland in scale. From Gen Z's embrace of accessible luxury in Southeast Asia to India's surging middle class and Africa's emerging local players, these regions signal growing luxury potential, Bain and Altagamma indicate.

Luxury's consumer base is contracting further as top customers show signs of spending stabilization

The study highlights that luxury's consumer base continues to shrink and splinter. The number of luxury consumers has dropped from 400 million in 2022 to around 340 million in 2025. Between 2024 and 2025, new customer acquisition for luxury brands has declined by 5%. The study also reveals a reduced level of interest as active luxury shoppers have fallen from ~ 60% in the total addressable customer base in 2022 to some 40–45% this year.

Spending patterns within the luxury market are fracturing, the study finds, with buyers making fewer purchases and favoring smaller indulgences and markdown channels. Spending is also shifting to experiences, affordable alternatives, and resale, signaling a structural reset in how consumers engage with luxury. Meanwhile, the spend of 'big spenders' is plateauing: their share of the market surged from 30% (€88B in 2019) to 45% (€165B in 2024) but is flattening in 2025 at ~ 46–47% (€165B).

Margins return to 2009 levels

The luxury industry is experiencing margin pressures that have brought its profitability back down to 2009 levels, largely due to higher operating costs and challenges in sustaining revenue growth. EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) margins for selected personal luxury goods brands, which peaked at 23% in 2012, should hit 15–16% in 2025, similar to the level in 2009.

This contraction in margins has led to an estimated €100 billion loss in the industry's total enterprise value over the past twelve months.

"Luxury brands are re-defining their reach through adjacent and lower-entry categories, expanding beyond traditional lines like sneakers and small leather goods into areas such as food, dining, and wellness," said Lannes "As pricing structures elevate and customer interest surges, brands face two key challenges: re-engaging aspirational consumers and legitimizing their expansion while maintaining coherence. To future-proof the model, brands must evolve from reach to precision, from blending with trends to shaping them. Longevity will reward brands that weave ethics in their value proposition with intimacy and integrity in their dialogue with consumers."

The luxury scenario to 2035

Looking further ahead, the report concludes that growth for personal luxury goods of 4% to 6% per year remains realistic, anchored by continued consumer expansion and enduring demand. By 2035, the personal luxury goods market should reach between €525B and €625B, while overall luxury spending could range between €2.2 and €2.7 trillion, Bain and Altagamma forecast.

"Luxury stands at a crossroads: uneven regional growth paths, pricing pressure, and fragmented consumer personas are testing its core," Lannes commented. "Creativity is progressively coming back, but a broken price–value equation calls for integrity and renewed trust. This is luxury's moment of truth: to rise through ethics, inclusivity, and authenticity, or retreat into elitism. The new formula is clear: entertainment, emotion, and ethics are the real sources of value. The winners will balance profit with purpose, creativity and conscience, turning recalibration into reinvention."